Newark Morning Ledger Co. v. United States, 507 U.S. 546, 36 (1993)

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Cite as: 507 U. S. 546 (1993)

Souter, J., dissenting

agement after the date of sale. And since this assumption is the basis for a prediction about the life of subscriptions existing on the date of sale, that prediction is by definition not simply about the duration of subscriber goodwill (or habit or inertia) as it existed on the date the paper changed hands. On the contrary, it is a prediction about the combined effect of presale goodwill and postsale satisfaction with the paper as Ledger presumably continues to produce it. Nowhere in Dr. Glasser's testimony do we find an opinion that the pre-sale goodwill has a life coextensive with the predicted life of the subscriptions, and nowhere do we find an opinion about the point at which the old goodwill finally peters out as a measurable, and hence valuable, influence on the old subscribers' behavior. It is not, of course, important for present purposes whether such an opinion would be possible, though I am skeptical that it would be.9 But it is important that no such evidence exists in this case. In place of evidence showing the depreciable lifespan of date-of-sale goodwill with a reasonable degree of accuracy, Ledger has presented evidence of how long an old subscriber will remain one, on the assumption that the subscriber's prior satisfaction is confirmed, and (for all we know) replaced, with satisfaction resulting from Ledger's publishing performance over the years following its acquisition of a given newspaper.

This, of course, misses the point entirely. In telling us merely how long a subscriber is likely to subscribe, Ledger tells us nothing about how long date-of-sale subscriber habit or inertia will remain a cause of predicted subscriber faithfulness. Since, however, only the date-of-sale probability of faithfulness could be entitled to depreciation as a pur-9 Goodwill results from such a mix of influences over time that it seems unlikely that the skein of them all could be untangled to identify the degree to which even present custom results from the goodwill purchased, as distinct from goodwill subsequently cultivated. Ledger has not even attempted such a disentanglement.

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