Cite as: 529 U. S. 244 (2000)
Syllabus
Court that California's law created an insignificant risk of increased punishment for covered inmates, the Court was careful not to adopt a single formula for identifying which parole adjustments would survive an ex post facto challenge. States must have due flexibility in formulating parole procedure and addressing problems associated with confinement and release. This case turns on the amended Rule's operation within the whole context of Georgia's parole system. Georgia law gives the Board broad discretion in determining whether an inmate should receive early release. Such discretion does not displace the Ex Post Facto Clause's protections, but the idea of discretion is that it has the capacity, and the obligation, to change and adapt based on experience. The statutory structure, its implementing regulations, and the Board's unrefuted representations regarding its operations do not support respondent's conclusion that the Board will not exercise its discretion in the period between parole reviews. The Georgia law is qualified in two important respects. First, it vests the Board with discretion as to how often to set an inmate's date for reconsideration, with an 8-year maximum. Second, the Board's policies permit expedited reviews in the event of a change in circumstance or new information. These qualifications permit the Board to set reconsideration dates according to the likelihood that a review will result in meaningful considerations as to whether an inmate is suitable for release. The Board's policy of providing reconsideration every eight years when it does not expect that parole would be granted during the intervening years enables the Board to ensure that those prisoners who should receive parole come to its attention. Given respondent's criminal history, it is difficult to see how the Board increased his risk of serving a longer time when it set an 8-year, not a 3-year, interval. Yet, even he may seek earlier review upon showing changed circumstances or new information. The Eleventh Circuit's supposition that the Rule seems certain to result in increased incarceration falls short of the rigorous analysis required by the Morales standard. When the rule does not by its own terms show a significant risk, the respondent must demonstrate, by evidence drawn from the rule's practical implementation by the agency charged with exercising discretion, that its retroactive application will result in a longer period of incarceration than under the earlier rule. On the record in this case, it cannot be concluded that the change in Georgia law lengthened respondent's actual imprisonment time. Pp. 249-256.
2. The Eleventh Circuit erred in not considering the Board's internal policy statement regarding how it intends to enforce its Rule. At a minimum, such statements, along with the Board's actual practices, provide important instruction as to how the Board interprets its enabling
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