Cite as: 536 U. S. 452 (2002)
Opinion of Thomas, J.
and numbers. See Halacy 33; Cohen 112-113. In 1782, Jefferson estimated Virginia's population and his calculation exhibited an awareness that statistical estimation techniques could be used to calculate population. Virginia had been unable to manage a full census for the Continental Congress; eight counties had failed to turn in any census data. J. Cassedy, Demography in Early America: Beginnings of the Statistical Mind, 1600-1800, p. 228 (1969) (hereinafter Cassedy). Jefferson had to extrapolate from incomplete tax returns, militia muster rolls, and other data. Nonetheless, he produced an estimate of 567,614. Ibid. First, he listed certain known facts, including data about Virginia's population in all but eight counties. In the eight counties for which information was not available, he knew that there had been 3,161 men in the militia in 1779 and 1780. He then listed five assumptions, such as "[t]he number of people under 16 years of age was equal to the number 16 years and over," on which he based his final estimate. Alterman 168-169.
Another elaborate effort at population calculation was undertaken by the Governor of Massachusetts in 1763, who estimated his Colony's population in three ways. First, he made an estimate from a return to the General Court of " 'rateable polls' " of males over 16 eligible to vote. He added an estimate of males who were too poor to pay the poll tax, and then added similar numbers of females. He made another estimate by multiplying the militia returns by four. He calculated a third estimate from the number of houses. Since many believed that houses averaged five occupants and others "preferred five and a half," he used both numbers. After giving the British Board of Trade several numbers, however, he concluded that the "actual population was none of these figures" and the population was in fact higher. Cassedy 73. In any event, "[s]ince all of the returns used in the estimates had been made for tax purposes, it was understood that they would be well on the low side." Ibid.
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