Cite as: 509 U. S. 312 (1993)
Opinion of the Court
From the diagnostic standpoint alone, Kentucky's differential burdens of proof (as well as the other statutory distinction at issue, see infra, at 328-329) are rational.
There is, moreover, a "reasonably conceivable state of facts," Beach Communications, 508 U. S., at 313, from which Kentucky could conclude that the second prerequisite to commitment—that "[t]he person presents a danger or a threat of danger to self, family, or others," Ky. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 202B.040 (Michie 1991)—is established more easily, as a general rule, in the case of the mentally retarded. Previous instances of violent behavior are an important indicator of future violent tendencies. See, e. g., J. Monahan, The Clinical Prediction of Violent Behavior 71-72 (1981) (hereinafter Monahan); Kozol, Boucher, & Garofalo, The Diagnosis and Treatment of Dangerousness, 18 Crime & Delinquency 371, 384 (1972). Mental retardation is a permanent, relatively static condition, see Mentally Disabled 37, so a determination of dangerousness may be made with some accuracy based on previous behavior. We deal here with adults only, so almost by definition in the case of the retarded there is an 18-year record upon which to rely.
This is not so with the mentally ill. Manifestations of mental illness may be sudden, and past behavior may not be an adequate predictor of future actions. Prediction of future behavior is complicated as well by the difficulties in-impose the due process conception of burdens of proof on a State's policy decision as to which standard is most appropriate in the circumstances. The Due Process Clause sets the minimum standard of proof required in particular contexts, based on consideration both of the respective interests of the State and individual and of the risk of erroneous decisions. Adding-ton, supra, at 425. A State is free to adopt any burden of proof that meets or exceeds the constitutional minimum required by due process, and a State may select a standard of proof based on any rational policy of its choice. It may seek, as Justice Souter would require, to balance the respective interests of the affected parties. See post, at 339. But it may also calibrate its standard of proof in an effort to establish the risk of error at a certain level.
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