664
Opinion of Kennedy, J.
States v. Midwest Video Corp., 406 U. S., at 668, n. 27 (plurality opinion) (quoting Associated Press v. United States, 326 U. S., at 20); see also FCC v. WNCN Listeners Guild, 450 U. S. 582, 594 (1981); FCC v. National Citizens Comm. for Broadcasting, 436 U. S. 775, 795 (1978). Finally, the Government's interest in eliminating restraints on fair competition is always substantial, even when the individuals or entities subject to particular regulations are engaged in expressive activity protected by the First Amendment. See Lorain Journal Co. v. United States, 342 U. S. 143 (1951); Associated Press v. United States, supra; cf. FTC v. Superior Court Trial Lawyers Assn., 493 U. S. 411, 431-432 (1990).
B
That the Government's asserted interests are important in the abstract does not mean, however, that the must-carry rules will in fact advance those interests. When the Government defends a regulation on speech as a means to redress past harms or prevent anticipated harms, it must do more than simply "posit the existence of the disease sought to be cured." Quincy Cable TV, Inc. v. FCC, 768 F. 2d 1434, 1455 (CADC 1985). It must demonstrate that the recited harms are real, not merely conjectural, and that the regulation will in fact alleviate these harms in a direct and material way. See Edenfield v. Fane, 507 U. S. 761, 770-771 (1993); Los Angeles v. Preferred Communications, Inc., 476 U. S., at 496 ("This Court may not simply assume that the ordinance will always advance the asserted state interests sufficiently to justify its abridgment of expressive activity") (internal quotation marks omitted); Home Box Office, Inc. v. FCC, 567 F. 2d 9, 36 (CADC 1977) ("[A] 'regulation perfectly reasonable and appropriate in the face of a given problem may be highly capricious if that problem does not exist' ") (citation omitted).
Thus, in applying O'Brien scrutiny we must ask first whether the Government has adequately shown that the eco-
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