Cite as: 513 U. S. 298 (1995)
Opinion of the Court
The meaning of actual innocence as formulated by Sawyer and Carrier does not merely require a showing that a reasonable doubt exists in the light of the new evidence, but rather that no reasonable juror would have found the defendant guilty. It is not the district court's independent judgment as to whether reasonable doubt exists that the standard addresses; rather the standard requires the district court to make a probabilistic determination about what reasonable, properly instructed jurors would do. Thus, a petitioner does not meet the threshold requirement unless he persuades the district court that, in light of the new evidence, no juror, acting reasonably, would have voted to find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
We note finally that the Carrier standard requires a petitioner to show that it is more likely than not that "no reasonable juror" would have convicted him. The word "reasonable" in that formulation is not without meaning. It must be presumed that a reasonable juror would consider fairly all of the evidence presented. It must also be presumed that such a juror would conscientiously obey the instructions of the trial court requiring proof beyond a reasonable doubt.48
48 The Chief Justice suggests that the Carrier standard is "a classic mixing of apples and oranges." Post, at 339. That standard, however, is no more a mixing of apples and oranges than is the standard adopted by the Court in Sawyer. See Sawyer, 505 U. S., at 336 (requiring that petitioner show "by clear and convincing evidence that, but for a constitutional error, no reasonable juror would have found the petitioner eligible for the death penalty"). Though it is true that " '[m]ore likely than not' " is a "quintessential charge to a finder of fact," post, at 339, that is equally true of the "clear and convincing evidence" component of the Sawyer formulation. There is thus no reason to believe that the Carrier standard is any more likely than the Sawyer standard to be "a source of confusion." Post, at 339.
Nor do we accept The Chief Justice's description of the Carrier standard as a "hybrid." Post, at 339. Finders of fact are often called upon to make predictions about the likely actions of hypothetical "reasonable" actors. Thus, the application of "more likely than not" to the habeas court's assessment of the actions of reasonable jurors is neither illogical nor unusual.
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