Cite as: 521 U. S. 74 (1997)
Breyer, J., dissenting
the significance of the numerical results. See App. 93-94; Gingles, 478 U. S., at 57, nn. 25 and 26.
Regardless, as the majority says, the District Court found the statistical evidence inconclusive and "conflicting." 922 F. Supp., at 1567. And the District Court conceded the existence of "some degree of vote polarization." Ibid. (It simply said that the "degree" was not " 'alarming.' " Ibid.) That African-American incumbents were reelected does not, without more, disprove polarization. Gingles, supra, at 75 (" '[T]he election of a few minority candidates does not "necessarily foreclose the possibility of dilution of the black vote . . ." ' ") (quoting S. Rep. No. 97-417, p. 29, n. 115 (1982), in turn quoting Zimmer v. McKeithen, 485 F. 2d 1297, 1307 (CA5 1973) (en banc), aff'd sub nom. East Carroll Parish School Bd. v. Marshall, 424 U. S. 636 (1976) (per curiam)); 478 U. S., at 75 (citing S. Rep. No. 97-417, supra, at 29, n. 115) (listing incumbency as a special factor in assessing vote polarization).
The majority says that, despite this evidence, the District Court's findings—of no § 2 violation and no § 5 violation—are adequately supported. Ante, at 94, 97. But that is because the District Court asked the wrong question. We need not decide whether the evidence shows the failure to create a second majority-minority district violates § 2. Cf. ante, at 90-95. (Nor, for that matter, need we decide whether the consequent reduction of such districts from 1 in 10 to 1 in 11 would, other things being equal, violate § 5—which it might do. Cf. ante, at 95-98.) The question is not about whether the evidence proves § 2 in fact requires two majority-minority districts. The question is whether the evidence is strong enough to justify a legislature's reasonable belief that that was so. The record rather clearly demonstrates a "strong basis in the evidence" for believing that § 2 or § 5 required two majority-minority districts. The legislature thus could very reasonably have believed that was so. And, that is what I had believed the law, as set forth in this
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