Cite as: 539 U. S. 461 (2003)
Souter, J., dissenting
deed, the core holding of the Court today, with which I agree, that nonretrogression does not necessarily require maintenance of existing supermajority minority districts, turns on this very point; comparing the number of majority-minority districts under existing and proposed plans does not alone reliably indicate whether the new plan is retrogressive.
Lack of contextual evidence is not, however, the only flaw in the Court's numerical arguments. Thus, in its first example, ante, at 487, the Court points out that under the proposed plan the number of districts with majority BVAP increases by one over the existing plan,5 but the Court does not mention that the number of districts with BVAP levels over 55% decreases by four. See Record, Doc. No. 148, Pl. Exhs. 1D, 2C. Similarly, the Court points to an increase of two in districts with BVAP in the 30% to 50% range, along with a further increase of two in the 25% to 30% range. Ante, at 487. It fails to mention, however, that Georgia's own expert argued that 44.3% was the critical threshold for BVAP levels, 195 F. Supp. 2d, at 107, and the data on which the Court relies shows the number of districts with BVAP over 40% actually decreasing by one, see Record, Doc. No. 148, Pl. Exhs. 1D, 2C. My point is not that these figures conclusively demonstrate retrogression; I mean to say only that percentages tell us nothing in isolation, and that without contextual evidence the raw facts about population levels fail to get close to indicating that the State carried its burden to show no retrogression. They do not come close to showing clear error.
5 Though the Court does not acknowledge it in its discussion of why "Georgia likely met its burden," ante, at 487, even this claim was disputed. As the District Court explained: "[t]he number of Senate Districts with majorities of BVAP would, according to Georgia's calculations, increase from twelve to thirteen; according to the Attorney General's interpretation of the census data, the number would decrease from twelve to eleven." 195 F. Supp. 2d, at 93.
505
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