Sharon Lee Bartlett, F.K.A. Heitzman - Page 12

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          presence of Bartlesville Sand in the immediate area is critical             
          because the geological structure of Bartlesville reservoirs may             
          vary greatly in thickness and reservoir quality over short                  
          distances.7  Because developmental drilling occurs only in known            
          formations, the drilling programs proposed by the Coburn report             
          and the Memorandum could only have been exploratory, inasmuch as            
          the nearest actual oil production in the preceding 40 years had             
          occurred some 8 miles away from the Stonehurst leasehold.                   
          Exploratory drilling, in contrast to developmental drilling, has            
          an expected likelihood of success of about 10 percent.                      
               The Coburn report projected reserves of 518,400 barrels                
          based on 30 notional wells if “water injection is commenced                 
          immediately”.  The report based its projections on a notional               
          well producing 5 barrels of oil per day, declining thereafter to            
          3 barrels per day after 24 months.  Without confirmation of known           
          formations in the immediate vicinity of the leasehold, any                  
          projection of reserves of 518,400 barrels was wildly over-                  
          optimistic.  The yield projection of a notional well over a 15-             
          year life also unrealistically postulated a constant yield over             
          the last 13 years of life of the well.  Such a projection curve             
          is inconsistent with typical oil well production yield curves,              



               7 Bartlesville Sand is fluvial sand deposited in ancient               
          riverbeds.  The best Bartlesville production is found in the                
          meandering bends of the buried riverbeds in “ox-bow cut-offs”               
          that have a thick sand bar on the inside edge of the bend                   
          containing large oil deposits.                                              


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