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presence of Bartlesville Sand in the immediate area is critical
because the geological structure of Bartlesville reservoirs may
vary greatly in thickness and reservoir quality over short
distances.7 Because developmental drilling occurs only in known
formations, the drilling programs proposed by the Coburn report
and the Memorandum could only have been exploratory, inasmuch as
the nearest actual oil production in the preceding 40 years had
occurred some 8 miles away from the Stonehurst leasehold.
Exploratory drilling, in contrast to developmental drilling, has
an expected likelihood of success of about 10 percent.
The Coburn report projected reserves of 518,400 barrels
based on 30 notional wells if “water injection is commenced
immediately”. The report based its projections on a notional
well producing 5 barrels of oil per day, declining thereafter to
3 barrels per day after 24 months. Without confirmation of known
formations in the immediate vicinity of the leasehold, any
projection of reserves of 518,400 barrels was wildly over-
optimistic. The yield projection of a notional well over a 15-
year life also unrealistically postulated a constant yield over
the last 13 years of life of the well. Such a projection curve
is inconsistent with typical oil well production yield curves,
7 Bartlesville Sand is fluvial sand deposited in ancient
riverbeds. The best Bartlesville production is found in the
meandering bends of the buried riverbeds in “ox-bow cut-offs”
that have a thick sand bar on the inside edge of the bend
containing large oil deposits.
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