- 39 - estimate of the value of a 100-percent fee simple interest in the leased land in 1991. Maloy determines this baseline estimate on the basis of comparisons with numerous property sales in the same counties as the leased land. Maloy then applies a growth rate of 5 percent to project a future value for the reversion in 2023 of $10,245,020.23 From this amount, Maloy subtracts $2,454,315 for estimated replanting costs in 2023, to yield net future value in 2023 of $7,790,706.24 Maloy then applies a discount rate of 8 percent to yield a present value of the reversion of $663,768. As previously discussed, we disagree with Maloy’s selected discount rate as being understated. We conclude, however, that Maloy’s valuation of the reversion is in all other respects reasonable and is based on sound assumptions and methodology, taking into consideration, among other things, reasonable costs of reforesting the land at the end of the lease.25 Accordingly, 23 Maloy’s assumption of a 5-percent growth rate is based on his determination that timberland in general would benefit from increased timber prices, Federal programs, and the leasing of hunting rights. 24 Maloy estimates replanting costs in 2023 by determining an estimated $150 per acre replanting cost in 1990 and then adjusting this number upward to reflect an estimated annual inflation rate of 1.87 percent. 25 Petitioner’s own witness, Charles Irwin, testified that in 1991 it probably would have cost $75-$80 per acre to prepare the land for planting if it lay fallow for under 1 year, and $50- $55 per acre to plant the land, resulting in a total cost of $125-$135 per acre. Thus, Maloy’s replanting estimate is actually greater than Irwin’s. Irwin does claim that the costs to prepare the land could “probably double” if the fallow period was 4 or 5 years. It seems unlikely, however, that the lessee (continued...)Page: Previous 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Next
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