J.C. Shepherd - Page 39




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          estimate of the value of a 100-percent fee simple interest in the           
          leased land in 1991.  Maloy determines this baseline estimate on            
          the basis of comparisons with numerous property sales in the same           
          counties as the leased land.  Maloy then applies a growth rate of           
          5 percent to project a future value for the reversion in 2023 of            
          $10,245,020.23  From this amount, Maloy subtracts $2,454,315 for            
          estimated replanting costs in 2023, to yield net future value in            
          2023 of $7,790,706.24  Maloy then applies a discount rate of 8              
          percent to yield a present value of the reversion of $663,768.              
               As previously discussed, we disagree with Maloy’s selected             
          discount rate as being understated.  We conclude, however, that             
          Maloy’s valuation of the reversion is in all other respects                 
          reasonable and is based on sound assumptions and methodology,               
          taking into consideration, among other things, reasonable costs             
          of reforesting the land at the end of the lease.25  Accordingly,            


               23 Maloy’s assumption of a 5-percent growth rate is based on           
          his determination that timberland in general would benefit from             
          increased timber prices, Federal programs, and the leasing of               
          hunting rights.                                                             
               24 Maloy estimates replanting costs in 2023 by determining             
          an estimated $150 per acre replanting cost in 1990 and then                 
          adjusting this number upward to reflect an estimated annual                 
          inflation rate of 1.87 percent.                                             
               25 Petitioner’s own witness, Charles Irwin, testified that             
          in 1991 it probably would have cost $75-$80 per acre to prepare             
          the land for planting if it lay fallow for under 1 year, and $50-           
          $55 per acre to plant the land, resulting in a total cost of                
          $125-$135 per acre.  Thus, Maloy’s replanting estimate is                   
          actually greater than Irwin’s.  Irwin does claim that the costs             
          to prepare the land could “probably double” if the fallow period            
          was 4 or 5 years.  It seems unlikely, however, that the lessee              
                                                             (continued...)           



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