- 28 -
in changes of 7 to 10 percent in his conclusions. Ex. 61-R,
pp.6-7, IV-3. We are struck by the fact that Hakala has so much
confidence in the combination of accuracy and precision of his
numbers and analysis that, even after the humbling exercise of
making the gross corrections he describes, he claims to be able
to come to conclusions to six significant figures. Supra table
5. Respondent urges us to follow in Hakala’s footsteps--to six
significant figures. We respond that, neither Hakala’s nor
respondent’s continued presentation of six-significant-figure
conclusions causes us to have any confidence that the precision
of those conclusions is an indication that those conclusions are
accurate.6 Indeed, Hakala’s efforts to persuade us to walk that
road serve only to cause us to doubt his judgment. When we doubt
the judgment of an expert witness on one point, we become
reluctant to accept that expert’s conclusions on other points.7
6 A quotation from Shakespeare is perhaps apt:
Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they
come when you do call for them?
Henry IV, Part I, act 3, sc. 1.
7 For completeness, it should be noted that, when the Court
asked Hakala “why it is that you believe it is appropriate to
come up with a result to six significant figures”, he responded
that--
no one in a real compensation would round to six significant
figures, that normally I would round to the nearest thousand
(continued...)
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