J.C. Shepherd - Page 27




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          by petitioner from 1957 through 1995.  The parties disagree,                
          however, about the anticipated growth rate of the annual rent               
          payments over the remaining life of the lease.                              
               Under the lease, rents are adjusted to reflect changes                 
          relative to the average 1955 Wholesale Price Index but only after           
          there has been a cumulative adjustment of at least 5 percent from           
          the last change.  In projecting future rents, Maloy, Lipscomb,              
          and Dilmore each rely on historical changes in the PPI.  Maloy              
          and Lipscomb agree that historical changes in the PPI averaged              
          1.87 percent for the 10 years before 1991.14  Maloy ends his                
          analysis there, projecting rental increases of 5.6 percent (1.87            
          times 3) every 3 years for the duration of the lease.                       
               Lipscomb and Dilmore also take into account historical data            
          showing that the rate of actual rent increases has lagged behind            
          the rate of changes in the PPI, ostensibly as a result of                   
          inconstant annual rates of increase in the PPI in combination               
          with the requirement that rents adjust only after there has been            
          a 5-percent cumulative change in the average price index.  On the           
          basis of this analysis, Lipscomb projects lease rent increases              
          of 5.2 percent every 3 years, and Dilmore estimates an average              
          long-term growth rate of approximately 1.5 percent per year.                




               14 Mr. Gene Dilmore (Dilmore) determined that increases in             
          the Producer Price Index (PPI) averaged 1.41 percent over the 10            
          years prior to petitioner’s gifts.                                          




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