Capital Blue Cross and Subsidiaries - Page 49

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          petitioner was realizing losses on none of the experience-rated             
          group contracts.  In explanation, petitioner’s expert notes that            
          the experience-rated group contracts had reserve mechanisms that            
          allowed petitioner potentially to recoup losses relating to                 
          particular experience-rated group contracts.  Petitioner,                   
          however, was not insulated from losses relating to experience-              
          rated group contracts, and every experience-rated group contract            
          could produce an unrecoverable loss for petitioner.  The                    
          retrospective credit contracts could be terminated by the groups            
          at will even if they had a deficit account, and petitioner could            
          only recoup a shortage with respect to its retrospective refund             
          contracts if the contracts produced excess premiums in subsequent           
          years.                                                                      
               By not taking into account contract-specific characteristics           
          relating to experience-rated group contracts, petitioner’s expert           
          concluded that the average experience-rated group contract would            
          not experience a loss, and his valuation did not reflect or                 
          identify which experience-rated group contracts should be so                
          treated as loss contracts and valued accordingly.                           
               The error of petitioner’s expert’s approach in this regard             
          is illustrated by an example involving Pennsylvania Farmer’s                
          Union, and facts that generally postdate January 1, 1987, but               
          that nevertheless illustrate the problem with petitioner’s                  
          valuation approach.  As of January 1988, Pennsylvania Farmer’s              
          Union maintained with petitioner three experience-rated,                    
          retrospective credit group contracts with a cumulative deficit of           





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