Capital Blue Cross and Subsidiaries - Page 50

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          approximately $700,000.  By early 1994, the cumulative deficit              
          had reached $4 million, and petitioner had proposed a 48-percent            
          rate increase to take effect the following year.  Pennsylvania              
          Farmer’s Union did not accept the rate increase proposed by                 
          petitioner, and its group contracts with petitioner were                    
          terminated in 1994.                                                         
               In spite, however, of the millions of dollars in deficits              
          that petitioner had incurred relating to the three Pennsylvania             
          Farmers’ Union group contracts (particularly the $568,000                   
          cumulative deficit that had built up in 1988 and prior years),              
          petitioner’s expert assigned the three Pennsylvania Farmer’s                
          Union contracts a total positive value of $479,000, or nearly 20            
          percent of the total value attributed to all of petitioner’s                
          experience-rated group contracts that were terminated in 1994.              

          Lifing Analysis                                                             
               In establishing the future income stream for the group                 
          contracts, petitioner’s expert undertook a lifing analysis of               
          petitioner’s group contracts in which he, in present value terms,           
          set forth the after tax income he expected petitioner’s 23,526              
          group contracts to generate over the course of 20 years (1987-              
          2006).                                                                      
               In his lifing analysis of petitioner’s group contracts, in             
          his attempt to account for the reality that not all of                      
          petitioner’s group contracts would remain in existence for 20               
          years, petitioner’s expert utilized historical lapse rates                  
          relating to a sample of petitioner’s group contracts that                   




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