Nixon v. Shrink Missouri Government PAC, 528 U.S. 377, 50 (2000)

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426

NIXON v. SHRINK MISSOURI GOVERNMENT PAC

Thomas, J., dissenting

(quoting Shrink Missouri Government PAC v. Adams, 5 F. Supp. 2d 734, 741 (ED Mo. 1998))). But the Court quickly deviates from Buckley, persuading itself that Missouri's limits do not suppress political speech because, prior to the enactment of contribution limits, "97.62 percent of all contributors to candidates for state auditor made contributions of $2,000 or less." Ante, at 396. But this statistical anecdote offers the Court no refuge and the citizenry no comfort. As an initial matter, the statistic provides no assurance that Missouri's law has not reduced the resources supporting political speech, since the largest contributors provide a disproportionate amount of funds. The majority conspicuously offers no data revealing the percentage of funds provided by large contributors. (At least the Court in Buckley relied on the percentage of funds raised by contributions in excess of the limits. 424 U. S., at 21-22, n. 23, 26, n. 27.) But whatever the data would reveal, the Court's position would remain indefensible. If the majority's assumption is incorrect—i. e., if Missouri's contribution limits actually do significantly reduce campaign speech—then the majority's calm assurance that political speech remains unaffected collapses. If the majority's assumption is correct—i. e., if large contributions provide very little assistance to a candidate seeking to get out his message (and thus will not be missed when capped)—then the majority's reasoning still falters. For if large contributions offer as little help to a candidate as the Court maintains, then the Court fails to explain why a candidate would engage in "corruption" for such a meager benefit. The majority's statistical claim directly undercuts its constitutional defense that large contributions pose a substantial risk of corruption.10

10 The majority's statistical analysis also overlooks the quantitative data in the record that directly undercut its position that Missouri's law does not create "a system of suppressed political advocacy." Ante, at 396. For example, the Court does not bother to note that following the imposition of contribution limits, total combined spending during primary and

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